Arakha Times, 5 December 2024
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has declared a unilateral ceasefire starting on 3 December, under mediation from China. Alongside the ceasefire, the MNDAA has called for both sides to refrain from initiating hostilities, urging the military council to halt its ongoing air and ground offensives.
However, the military council is unlikely to comply with these demands, given the significant territorial losses it has suffered in northern Shan State, including Lashio, according to Myanmar-China analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.
“The situation in Burma largely depends on the Sa Ka Sa government and its willingness to reduce its privileges,” Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw told Arakha Times. “At present, this seems unlikely. The Sa Ka Sa government is unwilling to relinquish these advantages and is more focused on regaining control over lost territories. On the other hand, the MNDAA and allied groups assert their right to defend their positions. If they can consolidate and stabilise their areas during this period, they could potentially establish liberated zones that might serve as stepping stones for a broader revolution.”
The MNDAA’s statement emphasises its commitment to participating in Chinese-mediated talks to resolve ongoing conflicts, including the Lashio battle, through dialogue. It reassured that the Kokang Army does not intend to secede from Myanmar or form an independent state but is seeking autonomy within the union.
While supporting political dialogue, the MNDAA stressed its right to self-defence and announced plans to send a high-level delegation to the upcoming talks with the military council.
A political analyst noted that the MNDAA’s position remains consistent with past statements. “This is not unprecedented. Similar actions were taken under U Thein Sein’s administration. The MNDAA and TNLA have close historical ties with China, so there is little new in this development. However, the situation may only see resolution if China actively intervenes,” the analyst remarked.
The Northern Alliance, led by the MNDAA, currently controls several key areas in northern Shan State under Operation 1027. Lashio, among other territories, remains under MNDAA control despite sustained airstrikes by the military council.
China has been exerting pressure on the relevant groups to end the fighting in northern Shan State. Both the MNDAA and the Ta’ang (Palaung) National Liberation Army (TNLA) have expressed their willingness to accept China’s mediation for political talks.
