Military Junta’s Airstrikes Likely to Escalate

Military Junta’s Airstrikes Likely to Escalate

Arakha Times (November 28, 2024)

With significant territorial losses across several states and regions, political analysts predict that the Myanmar military junta may escalate its airstrikes and bombings.

According to an October report from the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar), the military conducted over 3,000 airstrikes between November 2023 and April 2024.

Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, a Myanmar-China affairs analyst, stated that the current dry season could lead to intensified clashes.

“Having lost key townships, the junta appears committed to its earlier strategy of indiscriminate bombings. Senior military officials have previously stated their intention to bombard areas they can’t control, ensuring their opponents cannot govern effectively. With pressure from China for a ceasefire, the junta is unlikely to retreat but may instead increase its military operations during the dry season,” she explained to Arakha Times.

Data from the research organization Nyan Linn Thit indicates a sharp rise in airstrikes, with 1,476 recorded in 2023 and 1,915 incidents within the first nine months of 2024—a significant increase of over 500 airstrikes.

This escalation is linked to the military’s loss of the Eastern Northern Regional Military Command and the strategic city of Lashio in Shan State.

During the second phase of Operation 1027, 71 airstrikes occurred in July 2024, 229 in August, and 152 in September.

U Than Soe Naing, a political analyst, noted, “With China indirectly supporting the junta, an increase in airstrikes is inevitable. The northern Shan State region is the primary focus now, but we are likely to see more coordinated air and ground operations in the Mandalay Region and central Myanmar soon.”

Shan State’s northern areas, particularly regions controlled by the Kokang Army (MNDAA), have experienced the highest number of airstrikes. Rakhine State follows closely, especially in territories under the control of the Arakan Army (AA).

Lashio, the capital of the Eastern Northern Regional Military Command now controlled by the MNDAA, has been subjected to daily airstrikes by the junta. In September alone, Lashio Township faced 15 airstrikes, resulting in at least nine deaths and injuries to over 50 people, according to MNDAA sources.

Meanwhile, in Rakhine State, a junta jet attack on Thandwe on September 16 killed 14 civilians, including displaced children, and injured 25 others.