December 6, 2024
Military and political analysts speculate that the Arakan Army (AA) may target Sittwe after its ongoing battles to capture Gwa and Toungok. This move aligns with the Arakan Army’s stated goal of completely eliminating the military council’s presence in Rakhine State.
Currently, the Arakan Army controls 11 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State and is actively attacking Maungdaw, Ann, Toungok, and Gwa.
Among the remaining townships—Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung—Manaung may be spared as it is located on a separate island. Kyaukphyu, on the other hand, is under joint protection by Chinese security forces and the military council. This leaves Sittwe as the most likely next target, according to political analyst U Kyi Myint.
“The Arakan Army intends to take control of all of Rakhine State. They have made it clear that no other army will be allowed in the state. While China will likely support Ma A La (the military council) in defending key locations, its focus will primarily be on Kyaukphyu, given its economic interests there. Chinese security forces will likely protect Kyaukphyu, but it’s uncertain if they will extend such protection to Sittwe. That’s why I believe Sittwe will be targeted first,” said U Kyi Myint.
Although Kyaukphyu itself has not been attacked, the Arakan Army has already occupied numerous villages in the surrounding area.
Political analyst U Than Soe Naing echoed these views, predicting a battle in Sittwe while deeming large-scale conflict in Kyaukphyu unlikely due to the presence of Chinese economic projects.
“There will definitely be a fight for Sittwe. For Kyaukphyu, I don’t foresee a major conflict because of China’s involvement. But Sittwe will be a battleground, as the Arakan Army is determined to remove the military council from Rakhine State,” he said.
Over the past few days, residents of Ye Chan Pyin Village in Sittwe Township have been forced to evacuate by December 4. Many of these displaced residents are now sheltering in monasteries in Sittwe.
A Sittwe resident commented, “Only Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung remain under military council control. But the situation for civilians is dire, with people fleeing from war zones. In Ye Chan Pyin, evacuation began three days ago. Some residents are in monasteries in the city, but I haven’t been there myself to confirm. Many are still struggling. As for the military council’s intentions, I don’t believe their promises will change.”
On December 2, Rakhine news outlets reported that a naval support ship from the military council departed Yangon, carrying new recruits, food supplies, weapons, and ammunition. The shipment is believed to be intended for Kyaukphyu or Sittwe, signaling efforts to bolster security in these cities.
Politicians suggest that the military council is taking these measures to prepare for potential Arakan Army attacks and to fortify defenses in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu.
