Japan Backs Down After Military Council Rejects Rakhine Ceasefire Proposal

Arakha Times (11 December 2024)

Political analysts say that Japan has stepped back from efforts to mediate the armed conflict in Rakhine State after the military council rejected its ceasefire proposal.

When the fighting broke out in Rakhine, Mr. Sasakawa, the president of the Nippon Foundation, visited Myanmar to mediate between the two sides on humanitarian grounds. However, Japan has not intervened in the latest escalation of the Rakhine conflict.

According to Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw, an expert on Myanmar-China relations, Japan primarily relied on the military council in its efforts but has since withdrawn because negotiations proved unsuccessful.

“Initially, Japan seemed to believe that discussions with the military council were possible. They mainly relied on the military and related entities, expecting they could negotiate. However, they couldn’t make progress and eventually backed down. It appears that Japan is no longer very interested in engaging. On the other hand, China and India are more invested in Rakhine because of their larger stakes. China has significant investments there, and while the AA operates geographically in Rakhine, its base is closer to KIA territory near the China border. Japan’s investments in comparison are relatively minor,” he explained.

Yohei Sasakawa, chairman of the Nippon Foundation, has been Japan’s special envoy for national reconciliation in Myanmar since 2013 and has mediated ceasefires in Rakhine State twice before. Shortly after the military council seized power, Sasakawa visited Rakhine State to mark the second anniversary of a prior ceasefire.

Political analyst U Than Soe Naing commented, “He [Sasakawa] can’t act anymore. There’s no reason to intervene now because his efforts have been limited to working with the military council. Given the current situation, Japan can’t make any moves. Sasakawa won’t return until the conflict ends.”

From November 27 to 29, 2023, Sasakawa visited Nay Pyi Taw for three days as fighting resumed in Rakhine State. During this visit, he discussed issues in northern Shan State and Rakhine State, but no tangible progress was made.

According to U Thein Htun Oo, director of the Seninga Strategic Studies Group, Japan’s engagement after Sasakawa’s involvement only worsened the situation.

“We all saw what happened after his engagement. If Japan intervenes again and causes more problems, it could harm its business interests. Who would step in to guarantee stability in such an unpredictable situation? That’s something Japan will have to weigh carefully,” he said.

Additionally, there are reports that Sasakawa visited Nay Pyi Taw again in November 2024.