Will Rakhine State Suffer from a Rice Shortage?

Will Rakhine State Suffer from a Rice Shortage?

Arakha Times (15-November-2024)

With intensified fighting in Rakhine State, the 600,000 acres of monsoon paddy fields are yielding poor harvests due to adverse weather conditions this season.

In normal years, Rakhine cultivates around 1.2 million acres of paddy. However, this year, the conflict has forced many farmers to flee, and the high costs of fuel and fertilizers have further reduced the cultivated area to half of its usual acreage.

Farmers are concerned that this year’s low yields could lead to a rice shortage in Rakhine, as stocks from last year are dwindling. According to U Maung Thein Hla, Secretary of the Dhanyawadddy Farmers’ Association, the remaining stock may only be enough to last four months if the population of Rakhine relies solely on it.

“Currently, rice is very abundant here. It’s abundant because last year’s rice stock hasn’t been able to leave Rakhine due to transport restrictions, so local people don’t need to pay high prices for rice. However, as we approach the new harvest season, those old rice stocks are starting to run out. Once they’re gone, the abundance from last year’s full-scale cultivation will no longer be a factor. This year, we’ve only planted around 600,000 acres, and the low yields are practically guaranteed.

Given the low yields, each person’s rice consumption rate is around 20 tins, which means only two people can be supported per acre. If there are 600,000 acres producing 40 tins each, that would only support around 1.2 million people, equivalent to about one-third of what’s normally needed—just four months’ worth of rice supplies. Based on this calculation, a shortage could emerge in the next three to four months,” he explained.

If the rice cultivation area in Rakhine continues to decline, a rice shortage in the region is certain. To prevent this, farmers have suggested that businesses, organizations, and associations support the supply of fertilizers, fuel, and cultivation expenses. With proper management and support, they believe that a potential rice shortage can be averted.

During the last monsoon rice planting season, despite extremely high prices for fertilizers and fuel, farmers bore the losses and continued cultivating, reaching a total of 600,000 acres. However, it’s now understood that farmers won’t be able to bear further losses to cultivate again in the upcoming monsoon season.

Therefore, in the upcoming monsoon rice season, it will be quite a challenge to even reach 100,000 acres of cultivation, U Maung Thein Hla added.

“The price of fuel per unit has risen from 550,000 to 2.5 million. Last year, farmers incurred losses. However, this year, around half of them couldn’t manage to plant in the monsoon season, resulting in only about 600,000 acres out of the usual 1.2 million being cultivated. For those who did manage to plant, only half of them were able to do so with great effort. This means that next year, it will be a significant challenge to reach even 100,000 acres. They’re simply not in a position to bear repeated losses two or three times over,” he said.

In normal years, Rakhine residents usually supplement their rice supply with imported rice from other regions, allowing the rice grown locally to sufficiently meet the needs of the Rakhine area. However, since late 2023, conflicts between the Arakan Army (AA) and the military have resulted in road closures, blocking the flow of goods. Consequently, rice from outside the state can no longer reach Rakhine, leading to increased reliance on the locally produced rice, according to reports.

If road closures continue, rice shortages could potentially worsen for certain townships in Rakhine, despite key areas like Kyauktaw and Mrauk-U—where the majority of rice is cultivated—being relatively secure from supply issues. Usually, summer rice cultivation is not practiced in Rakhine, but due to current supply concerns, farmers are showing interest in growing high-yield summer rice through irrigation systems. This effort, however, would require additional support and resources for the farmers.